What Is Super Tuesday in America
Delegate Rich Feb 5th, Has Caucus and Primary Elections in 24 States
Political party selections will take place from California to New York. With 3133* Democratic and Republican delegates available, from 24 diverse states; what is it?
The presidential primary season really takes off on February 5th 2008 when twenty-four states** hold Democratic and Republican primaries or caucuses nationally. Called Super Tuesday or Tsunami Tuesday, because the candidates will vie for 2064* Democratic and 1069* Republican convention delegates. It is the "super" day where the most delegates are available, throughout the primaries. Improbable that one candidate will secure the nomination; the significance can not be underestimated. In an effort to include more states in the selection process of presidential candidates, the political parties have front-loaded the primary season. In order to secure the nomination, a candidate needs a total of 2026 (1191 R) delegates of the 4050 (2380 R) total delegates from all 50 states.
The Democrats, unlike their Republican counterparts, operate their primaries under strict centralized, national party rules. Using a proportional primary system with a 15% threshold (verses the Republican “winner take all” system,) the likelihood that one democratic candidate would receive sufficient votes to secure the election is highly unlikely. Washington Post’s Anne E. Kornblut said: “Her strategists call it a ‘game of chess’… Clinton strategists have done the math… Obama [is] equally aware of the quirky math.”
While more possible for the Republicans, the wide open field of candidates makes it unlikely that one will become the clear leader. “Frontrunner label eludes GOP hopefuls,” was the headline of Dan Hoover's article in the Greenville, South Carolina News. "It's still as wide open as ever and any of the three [Republicans] could win…” said Dave Woodard, a Clemson University political scientist and pollster in the article.
Proportional Primary
Democrats have used this primary system since the mid 1970s. It divides the delegates, by the number of candidates that have received a percentage of votes above a preset 15% value. For candidates that do not meet this threshold, the delegates are divided proportionately among those that did.
For example, if a state has 100 at large delegates available and there are 5 candidates running for election. Assuming the vote count is 30%, 25%, 20%, 11% & 9% each; then the top 3 candidates would share the 100 delegates based upon their percentages. To determine the distribution, the percentage of the candidate is divided by the percentage of the combined total of those three candidates (30/75 = 40 delegates; 25/75 = 33.3 delegates & 20/75 = 26.7 delegates.) The lower tier candidates would receive nothing.
It must be mentioned that this type of primary does have another factor. District delegates are allocated based upon crossing the threshold in the individual district (or precinct) and at large delegates are distributed based upon the statewide percentage received. The example above would have to distribute delegates in both the district (based upon the district delegates available) and the state level (based upon the at large delegates for that state.)
Winner Takes All
It is a system used by certain states within the Republican Party. As in the Democrat's case, the Republicans too have district delegates and statewide at large delegates; yet, the distribution is absolute. The candidate with the majority vote in a district will receive all those votes but the candidate that receives the majority of the votes statewide will receive all the at large delegates. It is possible to win the statewide vote yet still receive fewer total delegates based upon large districts.
This Tuesday is extremely important for candidates that properly plan their “wins.” But as NH pollsters discovered, the voters will decide.
** There are 24 different states (not including American Samoa) holding primaries or caucuses but only 22 individual states for Republicans and Democrats. The disparity is that Idaho and New Mexico have Democratic selections only while Montana and West Virginia have Republican selections only.
* This value does not include 24 AS and international delegates. Super Tuesday voting map and state delegate count.
