The Effect of Campaign Issues on Voter Turnout
Interpreting Trends in Presidential Elections from Voter Percentages
Since 1960, voter turnout in U.S. elections has reflected national trends affected by collective concerns and fears over domestic and foreign policy issues. Increases in voter turnout can also be attributed to aggressive voter registration drives, begun in the 1980s, as well as backlash against existing government policies. Larger turnout percentages during presidential elections usually reflected significant disenchantment with the party in power while midterm elections, although drawing fewer voters, serve as a litmus test for the party in power.
Presidential Elections Since 1960
Only 118,550 votes separated John F. Kennedy from Richard M. Nixon in 1960 with a voter turnout of 63.1% Although Vietnam was not a major issue in 1960, the previous Republican administration was perceived as unsuccessful in dealing with the Cold War. President Eisenhower had done nothing to stop the Soviet crackdown in Hungary and the U.S. was losing the space race. Kennedy, a young, articulate candidate, represented fresh ideas in dealing with both domestic issues like civil rights and taking on the Soviet Union.
In 1964, slightly over 60% of Americans voted, giving Lyndon Johnson a landslide victory over Senator Barry Goldwater. Four months prior to the November election, Johnson had presided over the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, portraying himself as a formidable Cold Warrior but without Goldwater’s extremist positions on the use of nuclear arms.
Most recently, the 2008 presidential election swept Senator Barack Obama into office with almost 57% of voter turnout, one of the largest in the last 60 years. American voters responded to issues like the declining economy, the Iraq occupation, government secrecy in the wake of 9/11, and the overall desire for change. Significantly, greater numbers of younger voters participated.
Voter Backlash in Presidential Elections
In 1976, over 53% of registered voters went to the polls and Jimmy Carter became president. Although the election results were close, Carter’s victory represented a vote of no confidence for Gerald Ford, whose elevation to the presidency resulted from the Watergate scandal and the first presidential resignation in history. Ford’s pardoning of Richard Nixon two years before the election also enraged many voters.
Jimmy Carter, however, was defeated four years later for many of the same reasons he won in 1976. Voters demonstrated their rejection of Carter Administration policies that included his handling of the energy crisis, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the loss of Iran, and the Moscow Olympic Boycott. Ronald Reagan received over 18 million more votes than Carter and claimed a mandate to restore the “city on a hill.” [1]
Backlash was also an issue in 1992 when Democrats portrayed George H. W. Bush as an out-of-touch plutocrat who, according to Texas Governor Ann Richards, “was born with a silver foot in his mouth.” Operation Desert Storm occurred early in his administration, a success overshadowed by new issues two years later. By 1992 the nation was facing recession and the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” persuaded voters to elect Bill Clinton.
Voter Trends in Presidential Elections
Interpreting voter turnout is complex yet certain general patterns can be determined when voter turnout tends to be high. In general, Americans are said to vote “their pocket books.” As long as the economy does well, unemployment remains low, and consumer confidence is high, parties in power have little to fear. The one significant exception to this was the reelection of Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Trends also act as future predictors. Thus, it is in the best interests of President Obama, assuming he seeks reelection in 2012, to rapidly ensure a return to prosperity and economic growth. Political strategists must look back in recent history to avoid repeating mistakes that could cost reelection.
Sources:
- Paul F. Boller, Jr., Presidential Campaigns From George Washington to George W. Bush (New York: Oxford University Press, 2004)
- Lewis L. Gould, The Most Exclusive Club (New York: Basic Books, 2005)
- John J. Patrick and others, The Oxford Guide to the United States Government (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001)
[1] The phrase “city on a hill” dates back to the early 1600s and has been used by many political leaders to illustrate the American mission.
Higher Voting Percentages Indicate Tough Choices
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