Obama and Clinton Eye Puerto Rico
The Island Territory Might Decide the Fate of the Democratic Party
With less than three months remaining in a hotly contested primary season, Puerto Rico's delegates may decide the identity of the Democratic nominee.
In a campaign year that has been filled with drama and a certain amount of oddities, there is no oddity greater than this: who the Democratic nominee is might hinge on the primary in Puerto Rico.
The whole idea that a United States territory—that strange hybrid caught in limbo somewhere between a state and a country—could decide who the nominee is seems, at the very least, peculiar. It is strange, but it is very real.
In a race that has been so close from the beginning, there is no reason to think that Puerto Rico’s 55 delegates will not play a major role in deciding the nominee. In the race for the nomination, there are eight states remaining and two territories—Guam and Puerto Rico. There are also 350 superdelegate votes remaining, for a grand total of 916 delegates up for grabs. As of now, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by only 142 delegates.
Assuming, as polls indicate, that Clinton will win by double digits in Pennsylvania, Obama's lead could shrink by as many as 30 delegates after April 22. Factoring in the variable of the superdelegates makes the race even tighter. Thus, as the Puerto Rico caucus date gets closer, there is likely to be a frantic rush by campaign leaders to get the superdelegates to commit, making the caucus even bigger than it appears now.
The big question then, is which candidate is more likely to win in Puerto Rico? Does being a minority candidate favor Obama? Will Clinton’s strong Latino following help her more? The island’s governor, Anibal Acevedo-Vila, is endorsing Obama, but like everything else in this election season, it is a wait-and-see process.
Although Michael Barone points out in this U.S. News and World Report article that Puerto Rico has traditionally been a winner-take-all state, that is not likely to happen this time around in such a hotly contested race. Moreover, the Democratic National Committee will be keeping a very close eye on the outcome, especially if the nomination depends on the territory’s results. Any attempt by the governor or a high-powered legislative figure to garnish all the votes for one candidate will likely be reined in very quickly.
This whole scenario has a bit of comical irony. Both candidates have spent millions upon millions of dollars campaigning for the better part of a year, telling each state’s citizens why they are the best candidate for that particular state, and the fate of the Democratic Party might hinge on a Caribbean island that gets no say in the general election for president.
