Presidential Polls and the Electoral College
The Difference Between the National Vote and the Electoral Map
Oct 20, 2008
As of Monday, October 20, the last day to register to vote in 2008, CNN's National Poll of Polls gave Senator Barack Obama a 7% lead among voters across the nation over rival John McCain. He was ahead of McCain 51% to 44%. On CNN's website, however, an Electoral Map Calculator had Obama winning the election by a landslide, with 277 electoral votes against McCain's 174.
What do the Polls Tell Us?
Just about every major media outlet across the nation conducts presidential polls during the election season. Each poll is a fairly large random sample of how the general population feels at the moment. The idea is to demonstrate who would win the election if it was held on the day of the poll.
Most polls claim to be accurate within three to four percentage points. This means that if one candidate is ahead by six or seven percent in a certain poll, then an interpretation of the data should still allow for a tie. CNN's National Poll of Polls, because it is a compilation of three other major polls, claims to have no margin of error. It may well be the best indicator of how the United States voter population feels as a whole.
National Election for President of the United States? Not Really
When Americans cast their vote for the next president of the United States on November 4, they will not really be participating in a national election. Rather, they will be weighing in on who they want their state to vote for. Their state's predetermined number of electors, or people who have been chosen to cast a vote representing the state's decision, are the ones who actually vote for the next president.
Because of this, the final tally of votes that count has the potential to be dramatically different than the percentage that a candidate wins the general election by.
Every high school graduate who paid attention during their United States Government class already knows this, or at least took a test about it in the past. But the system still managed to surprise the entire nation in the 2000 election between George Bush, Jr., and Al Gore. Bush won the election thanks to the still controversial electoral vote in Florida. Even with the Florida vote count in Bush's favor, he still lost the popular vote across the nation.
In 2008, it looks like the electoral college will work to the advantage of the Democrats instead. While Obama's lead in the popular polls is not enough to make democrats completely comfortable, the same voter data spread over the electoral map calculator shows that the 2008 presidential contest is basically over.
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