Obama Wins Potomac Primary
Maryland, Virginia & Washington DC Make Obama Delegate Leader
Senator Barack Obama became the Democratic front-runner with decisive wins in Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, Virgin Islands, Washington State & now the Beltway Primaries.
Winning 8 states over a 4 day period has clearly placed Obama in the delegate count driver’s seat. NDTV reported “The Associated Press count of delegates showed Obama with 1,210. Clinton had 1,188, falling behind for the first time since the campaign began.” John Ibbitson of the Globe and Mail wrote yesterday: “his victory ensures that Mr. Obama will enjoy a considerable advantage in the delegate count. He now leads Ms. Clinton both in popular vote and in delegates, despite Ms. Clinton's large lead among super-delegates.”
Support Base
The loss of states and delegates to Obama is eroding Clinton’s support base which; can be fatal for her nomination. Tim Reid of the Sunday Times wrote on February 13th: “Aides are now privately conceding that failure to win in Ohio and Texas could end Mrs. Clinton's campaign…”
Ibbitson said: “In previous states, the vote was split between African Americans and affluent liberals, who backed Mr. Obama, and Latino and middle- and working-class white voters, especially white women, who backed Ms. Clinton.” Reid continued in the Times: “Ohio has a heavily white, blue-collar, union[ized] Democratic electorate - a voting bloc that has largely backed [Clinton] in previous contests - while Texas has a significant proportion of Hispanics, who have also overwhelmingly supported her.”
Obama’s Base
- Black Voters
- Highly Educated
- Independent Voters
- Youth
Clinton’s Base
- Blue Collar/Union Workers
- Latino Voters
- Senior Citizens
- Super Delegates
- White Voters
- Women
Clinton’s Erosion
Obama’s wins are causing large numbers of Clinton’s base to leave her side. Ibbitson wrote: “…in Virginia and Maryland Tuesday night, exit polls showed that Ms. Clinton's base is melting away….What remains unknown is whether the size and scope of Mr. Obama's recent victories will erode [significant]...support among middle- and working-class voters and Latinos.”
- White Voters: Clinton is starting to loose strength among white voters. The more voters are learning about Obama the more they like him at her expense. Mark Cooper of the Huffington Post wrote last week: “All the evidence is in: the more that voters are exposed to Obama, the more they flock to him. The more they see Hillary Clinton, the more stagnant her numbers.” Reid wrote: “… [Obama] split the white vote with Mrs. Clinton, a worrying sign for the former First Lady whose earlier successes have been based in part on winning that demographic….” However, a Fox News/Associated Press Exit Poll Reported: “Obama's…win among whites in Virginia marked…the first time he has beat Clinton among whites in a Southern state.”
- Women: Tim Reid continued: “Mr. Obama also won among women 58% to 42%, according to exit polls, in contrast to Mrs. Clinton's heavy and critical backing from females to date, the cornerstone of her campaign….”
- Seniors: Fox News indicated seniors, a core Clinton constituency, went to Obama 53% to 47%. “The two candidates were about even among senior citizens in Maryland, but Obama won among seniors in Virginia.”
- Super Delegates: After Super Tuesday, Hillary’s super delegate lead over Mr. Obama was 211:128 and now CNN reports the ratio is 234:156. Ibbitson wrote: “...If current trends continue, [super delegates] too might start reconsidering their pledge of allegiance to the Clinton clan.”
- Latinos: The Fox News poll had Obama winning the Latino vote, 55 to 45 per cent.
While Mrs. Clinton is loosing support, Obama's base is strengthening. CNN reported on February 13th “Obama…[did] well among young voters, independents…taking 60 to 70 percent of the vote…But he also was edging out Clinton among voters 65 and older, blue-collar workers and women, all groups that Clinton was counting on as the core of her support.”
Fox News reported: “Obama won the votes of 90% of blacks in Virginia and 84% in Maryland…. [he] won the votes of 76% of Virginia Democrats under age 30 and 64% in Maryland.” John Ibbitson may have said it best: “…the Illinois senator's momentum would be considered unstoppable, were his opponent anyone other than Ms. Clinton.”
