Obama Wins Big in North Carolina
After only a Narrow Victory in Indiana, Clinton's Loss is Inevitable
May 8, 2008
After Barack Obama’s big win in North Carolina, and Hillary Clinton’s narrow victory in Indiana, the Democratic race is all but over. At this point, the Clinton campaign is simply avoiding the inevitable.
However, in what might be described as delusional behavior, Clinton presses on in a futile attempt to gain her party’s nomination. She acted victorious after her narrow victory in Indiana, despite the fact that she had lost any ground that she made up in the delegate count by winning Pennsylvania. Barack Obama, meanwhile, presses on in an inexorable showdown with John McCain.
The Delegates
As if it were not bleak enough for a campaign that is running out of time and money, the immutable laws of math paint a dire picture for Clinton.
There are six primaries remaining for the Democrats. The delegate lead for Obama is 161. Setting Oregon aside for a moment (which Obama is supposed to win big), assume Clinton wins the remaining five contests with a 60% victory in each—a very generous assumption. Next, assume that Clinton garnishes 50% from the Oregon contest—a number that is not only generous, but out of this world. That would leave Obama with a pledged delegate lead of 130 and only 86 short of the number needed for the nomination.
If all of that holds true, Clinton will have to convince 80% of the remaining superdelegates that she is the right person to run against McCain, a far-fetched scenario considering that she is currently only one superdelegate ahead of Obama—a lead that is shrinking by the day.
Florida and Michigan
The “X” factor here might be Florida and Michigan and what to do with those states’ presently uncounted delegates. Although Obama campaigned in Florida, he was not on the ballot in Michigan. So, what the Democratic leaders choose to do with the 368 delegates between those two states remains to be seen. The party’s dream scenario is to already have a nominee and not have to rely on the painstaking process of awarding delegates to two states who broke party rules.
End of an Era
It might not seem like it now, but Clinton’s skin-of-her-teeth victory in Indiana and big loss in North Carolina marks the end of a political era. The Clinton era has spanned the better part of the past two decades, from Bill’s presidential victories in 1992 and 1996, Hillary’s senatorial victories in 2000 and 2006, and then her subsequent bid for the presidency in 2008.
But perhaps that is precisely why the nomination is slipping through her fingers. Her candidacy signals—at least in some ways—a part of the old regime and a regression to the past. Voters are hungry for change, and it is increasingly hard for Clinton to convince them that she can bring about that when she has been a Washington resident for almost 20 years.
This is Barack Obama’s race to lose, and now he has all the momentum.
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