Even though the major networks shied away from predicting primary results in Nevada: pollsters are now predicting that Barack Obama is the leader in the South Carolina Democratic primary - with caveats. After the disaster in New Hampshire it appeared the news media would take a long sabbatical from conducting, repeating or using polling predictions. But just as the moth is attracted to the light, so too is the media drawn to the pollsters’ data! Thomas E. Mann’s book Media Polls in American Politics says: “…opinion polls have become staples of …reporting….[they] are a…permanent fixture of the modern newsroom….”
Now media journalists or pollsters are qualifying their data and predictions. Reuter’s political correspondent, John Whitesides, said in his January 23rd article: “Democrat Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead on rival Hillary Clinton three days before South Carolina's presidential primary…according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.” Whitesides continues: “About 14 percent of voters in the state are undecided, and about 20 percent of voters backing a candidate say they could still change their mind.”
According to pollsters, many of these qualifiers were determined to be the reasons the media got it wrong in New Hampshire.
The ultimate answer will be known on Saturday the 26th of January 2008. But an interesting question that will be answered is; did the media and pollsters get it right this time? Did Obama win or did they miscalculate the woman's vote again, the race vote or the southern strength of John Edwards?