To listen to any political commentators the past few months, it would seem Senator McCain's campaign is doomed. Each day seemed to get worse and worse for the elderly GOP Presidential candidiate. Few people felt he could compete with a young, energetic and exciting candidate such as Democrat Barack Obama, and many saw Obama's recent world tour as an anointing of sorts. Certainly Obama himself has become more confident of his position.
Obama Slips in Polls
Up until this point his message has been helped along by a friendly media, Republican fatigue, a disorderly McCain campaign, and grassroots excitement.
Scandals involving his long-time reverend Jeremiah Wright and controversial statements by his wife Michelle Obama threatened to slow his rapid rise to power, but he survived unscathed. Or so it was thought. At the time his numbers did not fluctuate too much in either direction, so many assumed that Barack Obama was popular enough to survive the election process. Even dubious relationships with the likes of Tony Rezko couldn't stop him.
Obama's recent trip to Europe and the Middle East was widely covered, pushing rival John McCain into the shadows momentarily and Republicans complained that he was getting treated like a rock star and given a free ride by the media. McCain even began criticising media coverage, comparing Obama to pop stars such as Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. Many felt this smacked of desperation and chalked it up to a failing McCain campaign.
But ever since the peak of Obama's Euro-tour, his numbers have steadily decreased and his once considerable lead over John McCain has all but evaporated.
Now McCain Leads Obama in Polls
But on August 4, 2008, Rasmussen, a widely respected polling institution, released a poll that declared that McCain was now leading Barack Obama in the polls, albeit insignificantly. Obama's popularity has been on steady decline since the height of his European tour, and from analyzing the polling data it would seem that many moderate or uncommitted voters are swinging into McCain's camp.
McCain now leads only by one point in the general poll, but looking underneath we see an extremely close race. Fifty-five percent of the nation sees John McCain in a positive light, while only 51% approve of Barack Obama. This would seem to go against the conventional wisdom that Obama will be carried into office easily come November.
Obama vs. McCain on the Issues
Interestingly, McCain is viewed as a moderate by 35% of the people, with Obama trailing close behind at 33%. McCain is trusted by more Americans on the important issue of energy (46%). Obama unveiled a new energy plan just this morning, so it remains to be seen if Obama's new policy (which includes a reversal of his opposition to off-shore drilling) will help boost his numbers.
McCain can draw some confidence from the recent change in the polls. There is a clear downward trend in Obama's numbers in almost every field, indicating the nation is skeptical about him. Despite this trend, McCain still must battle age, his Republican label, a sometimes confused and chaotic campaign staff, lack of fundraising, and lack of media awareness. But don't count John McCain out of the race yet. He's been a fighter all his life, and he's not going to go away quietly.
Sites of Interest:
http://www.barackobama.com/splash/
http://johnmccain.com/
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