McCain Close to Becoming Nominee
Endorsements, Electoral Victories Will Help the Arizona Senator
After a hard fought primary, Republicans are now coalescing around John McCain, but Mike Huckabee remains a factor.
Nearly a year after filing his candidacy, John McCain finally seems poised to become the Republican nominee for President. Endorsements and electoral victories will help the Arizona senator seal the deal in the coming weeks. However, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee remains in the race and could slow down the process.
McCain's Latest Endorsements
In recent weeks, John McCain has won the endorsements of several high profile Republicans, including several former primary rivals.
- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
- Texas Governor Rick Perry
- Former Virginia Governor George Allen
- Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
- Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani
- Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson
- Former Massachussetts Governor Mitt Romney
On Monday, February 18th, former President George H.W. Bush also plans to endorse John McCain. The announcement comes on the heels of President George W. Bush's calling John McCain a "true conservative" during an appearance on Fox News Sunday.
These high-profile endorsements are seen as crucial for John McCain, who in recent weeks has come under sharp criticism by conservatives who see him as too liberal on issues such as global warming, campaign finance reform, and immigration. However, the deciding factor will still be the actual voters, meaning John McCain needs to perform well in the upcoming primaries.
Upcoming Presidential Primaries
According to Real Clear Politics, John McCain currently has 825 electoral delegates and still needs 366 delegates to officially become the nominee. The following states and territories are set to hold their Presidential primaries and caucuses through the end of April, which could put John McCain over the top in terms of delegates.
- Wisconsin (February 19th; 40 delegates)
- American Samoa (February 23rd; 9 delegates)
- Puerto Rico (February 24th; 23 delegates)
- Texas (March 4th; 140 delegates)
- Ohio (March 4th; 88 delegates)
- Rhode Island (March 4th; 20 delegates)
- Vermont (March 4th; 17 delegates)
- Mississippi (March 10th; 39 delegates)
- Virgin Islands (April 4th; 9 delegates)
- Pennsylvania (April 22nd; 74 delegates)
Nine other states will be holding primaries in May and June. The next top candidate in terms of delegates is Mitt Romney with 291 delegates, who recently dropped out and has asked his delegates to vote for John McCain. However, Mike Huckabee has 240 delegates and remains in the race.
The Mike Huckabee Factor
According to Politico, it is now mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win enough delegates to become the Republican nominee for President. His only hope in becoming President, then, remains in performing strongly enough in the upcoming primaries to prevent John McCain from reaching the required number of delegates. This would force a brokered convention, which means the delegates would have to decide on a nominee at the convention (whereas, usually, the nominee is decided before the convention).
However, the odds of even a brokered convention are very slim. Mike Huckabee has pinned nearly all his hopes on Texas, a generally socially conservative state that could prove favorable to the former Southern Baptist pastor. However, Texas is not a winner-takes-all state, meaning that, even if Huckabee wins the state, McCain could still win a considerable number of delegates from the state.
McCain’s Outlook
Thanks to recent endorsements and strong success in recent primaries and caucuses, then, John McCain seems almost certain to become the Republican nominee for President of the United States. Barring a surprise showing from Mike Huckabee, McCain will face off against the Democratic nominee and an undetermined number of third-party candidates on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008.
