Will U.S.Voters Turn Out in 2008?
They've Responded to Candidates and Issues in the Past
Voter turnout in presidential elections has fluctuated widely in the last half century. It takes vital issues or appealing candidates to get them to the polls.
Voter turnout has been the key to close presidential elections throughout American history. Although percentages of participation in the United States trail many other democracies, Americans seem to flock to the polls when particular issues or candidates turn them on--or off.
According to the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, percentages of the voting age population are available from 1824, when John Quincy Adams was elected. The difficulties in gathering data and the lack of exposure to candidates in the pre-mass media era suggest that valid comparisons can be made only for recent decades.
Television was first used in the 1952 campaign. A war hero, Dwight D. Eisenhower was a candidate, and Republicans were eager to elect their first president in 20 years. There was an unpopular war in Korea and an aura of corruption in the outgoing Truman Administration. The combination resulted in a turnout of over 63 percent, ten points higher than the previous election, in fact the highest since 1908.
The turnout percentage remained above 60 percent until 1972, when Richard Nixon's reelection campaign against Senator George McGovern drew just over 55 percent on election Day. One can only speculate how different that figure might have been if the post-election revelations about the Watergate breakin of the previous June had surfaced earlier.
The Ford-Carter face-off of 1976 continued the downward trend with 53.5 percent, and even the appearance of Ronald Reagan, soon to be lionized as the Great Communicator, couldn't get the 1980 turnout above 53 percent. Many Americans told pollsters frankly that the succession of Vietnam, Watergate, and the "stagflation" of the late 1970's had convinced them that their national leadership was corrupt, dishonest, or ineffective.
Reagan's reelection in 1984, while overwhelming with those who voted, still did not entice more than 53 percent to the polls, and the "succession" contest in 1988 between George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis hit a post-war low of just over 50 percent. An unusual three-way competition among President Bush, Bill Clinton, and H. Ross Perot got the 1992 percentage above 55 percent, but Clinton's reelection campaign against Bob Dole four years later witnessed a decline below 50 percent.
George W. Bush and Al Gore barely nudged turnout above 51 percent in 2000. Again, one can only speculate whether greater numbers would have taken an interest if they had known that the closest of elections would end up in the Supreme Court. With national security a prime issue in 2004 in the wake of 9/11 and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, turnout rose above 55 percent.
Will 2008 continue a modest two-election upward trend? Will conservatives Republicans uneasy about Senator John McCain's maverick history ensure a solid Republican vote for him or will they stay home? Will zealous backers of the losing Democratic contender, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, rally to the party nominee, or will they sit out the election? It looks like turnout will be crucial this time.
