Early Voting in the U.S. Elections

The Young, Black, and Democratic Demographic in the U.S. Elections

Oct 30, 2008

That's who seems to be the majority of the early voters the U.S. election in 2008. Almost one-third of the electorate have voted before Election Day.

This is compared to 22% in 2004 and 16% in 2000. The ballots won’t be counted until Election Day but they will be cast. Will early voting change the results of the 2008 Presidential election in the United States?

The 18 - 29 Year Old Demographic

The real answer is that no one knows. Yet. It seems that many of the early voters, this year, are young, in the 18 – 29 year age group. They are Democratic. Also, many of them are black. They live in more than 30 states that allow their voters to cast early ballots either in person or by mail. Even though early votes will be counted on Election Day, absentee ballots take days or weeks to count. If the election is close, absentee ballots could be a factor.

The Black Demographic

The other demographic group flocking to the polls early is black Americans. In southern states that encourage early voting, a CBS News article posted recently notes that, in North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, black voters make up 31% of the early voters even though they make up 30% of the population and 25% of the 2004 vote.

The Democratic Vote

Registered Democrats are outvoting Republicans in North Carolina by 2.5 to 1 so far. In the battleground state of Florida, 41% of the registered voters are Democrats. Almost 55% of early voters are registered Democrats. In Louisiana, early Democratic voters top early Republican voters by 2 to 1. In Virginia, the largest increases in voter registrations were in Democratic-learning cities with large minority populations.

There is no way to know who all these early voters have voted for. What we do know is that Obama has had a huge grassroots campaign focusing on getting out the vote, and getting out the early vote in particular.

Another issue we have to consider is what will inevitably crop up if the vote is close on November 4 and that is the issue of voter fraud. This will be an issue if the Presidential election is close. Perhaps a tangential issue we should investigate, in another article, is voter suppression.

John McCain, in the last few days before the election, has been trying several last ditch strategies to bring voters to his side, including distancing himself from President Bush, distorting Senator Obama’s position on the issues, and even distancing himself from his own Vice-Presidential pick. As it turns out, it is too late for almost one-third of the population who have already voted. The tried-and-true political techniques don’t work anymore, Senator McCain. We have early voting, the Internet, grassroots financing, and savvy voters. If you try to change your message this last week, it may reach people – but more than 30% of those people have already voted.

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