The 2008 West Virginia Primaries
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton Expected to Win over Sen. Obama
A victory has been slated for Clinton in the state of West Virginia but as she trails Obama and others call for her to quit, it's unlikely that a win will save her.
As the United States presidential primaries spiral towards the General Election on November 4th, the one thing people can count on is that the Democratic Party's portion of the race will continue to be a source of entertainment and contention for voters. The May 13th Democratic primary in the U.S. state of West Virginia will be a clear indicator of that.
As Sen. Clinton looks for a big win in the West Virginia contest, Sen. Obama is already looking ahead to future primaries in order to secure his lead in the popular delegate vote and to strengthen his newfound place as forerunner in the all-important Super Delegate count. While he will be preparing for a visit to Michigan on May 14th, Clinton has made plans to celebrate what is expected to be a landslide victory tonight in Charleston, West Virginia.
Will Clinton’s Big Win Come Too Little, Too Late?
In last week’s May 8th primaries, Clinton won Indiana by a slim margin (taking 3 more delegates than her rival) and lost in a double-digit deficit in the state of North Carolina, where Obama gained 74 delegates to Clinton’s 53. Meanwhile, Obama has picked up 27 super delegates this week, which is enough to effectively offset the numbers that Senator Clinton is expected to receive today in West Virginia. Even a poll in the Washington Post on May 12th suggests that Obama holds a 12% lead among Democrats and Independents in their pick for the Democratic nod.
Adding further insult to injury, James Carville, who has been an ardent supporter of Senator Clinton, suggested on the 12th of this month that Sen. Obama will likely be the Democratic nominee.
With Sen. Obama momentum reaching an incredible velocity, things are looking bleak for Sen. Clinton. Obama currently has an estimated 1,595 pleged delegates to Clinton's 1,439. While both fall short of the necessary 4,049 needed for the Democratic Party's nomination, Obama's new lead in Super Delegates, who are more powerful party members and who's votes can supercede those of ordinary delegates, could give him the advantage to edge Clinton from the race. With only five more Democratic primaries left, the odds are stacked against Clinton that she will be able to overtake her rival.
While many call for her to quit the race and calling her bid for the nomination a long goodbye, some have begun suggesting that she take a shot at the nomination for Vice President. However, from an article by Carl Bernstein at CNN.com it is clear that some of those within Clinton’s campaign are still hoping for a “catastrophic revelation” to ruin Obama’s chances for election, pinning their chances for victory on the long shot downfall of their opponent rather than rely on the ever-waning steam of the Clinton campaign machine.
Does all of this mean that Clinton should quit the race? Not necessarily. According to a release from ABC News, 64% of polled Democrats feel that Hillary should continue her push. The primaries votes have not been tallied yet and it would be hasty to declare that Sen. Clinton is a lost cause before the booths close.
However, Sen. Clinton’s expected victory will only be the first part of a battle that will continue for the rest of the Democratic primaries. After tonight’s win she will still have a two-fold argument to make to the Democratic National Committe in order to keep her campaign and her hopes for the presidential nomination alive. Firstly, a landslide win for Clinton in West Virginia must highlight the problems that Sen. Obama has in courting key demographics, such as unions and blue-collar votes. Once demonstrating that, she must also prove that Obama would be incapable of getting these constituencies into the polling booths for the General Election against the Republican nominee, Sen. McCain.
Can this be done? Possibly. The only thing left to do is to wait and see.
