Clinton Wins Ohio and Texas

Obama Wins Texas Delegate Count - Little Overall Change for Clinton

© Frank W. Hardy

Hillary Clinton, www.hillaryclinton.com

Victories in Rhodes Island, Vermont, the Buckeye & Lone Star states gave Hillary Clinton positive momentum. Can PR reduce Obama's delegate lead & get her the nomination?

The following days will produce considerable political discussion about Tuesday’s election results. The reality is that while a lot occurred, little has changed – Obama still leads the race for the Democratic nomination for President. However, the spin machines will work overtime explaining how Hillary has come from near defeat to victory. CBS News on March 5th said: “Clinton, whose campaign just two weeks ago was deemed on the ropes…. led a rejuvenated campaign Wednesday after comeback victories in the Texas and Ohio Democratic primaries.”

Obama’s camp had a different spin on events. He told his supporters in San Antonio Texas: "No matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead [over Clinton] as we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination."

Both arguments are valid but only one will ultimately push a candidate to victory - PR momentum or raw delegate count?

  1. Ohio – Clinton's 1.208m to Obama’s 0.979 million
  2. Rhodes Island – Clinton’s 109k to Obama’s 79k
  3. Texas – Clinton’s 1.456m to Obama’s 1.356m
  4. Vermont – Clinton’s 60k to Obama’s 92k
  1. Ohio - 76 Clinton / 66 Obama
  2. Rhodes Island – 13 Clinton / 8 Obama
  3. Texas – 65 Clinton / 61 Obama
  4. Texas Caucus* – 30 Clinton / 37 Obama
  5. Vermont – 6 Clinton / 9 Obama

The resultant Obama/Clinton delegate ratio, after the election, is 1567 to 1466. This is an insignificant (0.401%) gain of delegates for Clinton (48.335% now to 47.934% before the 4 state elections.)

By far the largest benefit Clinton gets is the change of momentum the public will perceive occurred. On the Clinton campaign website she states: “With last night’s victories…one thing is clear: the momentum has swung back….” Unfortunately for her all that occurred on March 4th was the removal of 370 delegates from the race. Mathematics shows, gaining 2-3% of the delegates each cycle will not help her ultimately win the nomination.

* Ben Smith of Politico estimated on March 5th the results based upon the Texas Secretary of State's raw data: “results have Obama ahead -- sometimes by quite large margins -- in 21 of 31 Texas State Senate districts…”


The copyright of the article Clinton Wins Ohio and Texas in US Elections is owned by Frank W. Hardy. Permission to republish Clinton Wins Ohio and Texas must be granted by the author in writing.


Barack Obama, www.barackobama.com
Hillary Clinton, www.hillaryclinton.com
     


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