Clinton Wins Ohio and Texas
Obama Wins Texas Delegate Count - Little Overall Change for Clinton
Victories in Rhodes Island, Vermont, the Buckeye & Lone Star states gave Hillary Clinton positive momentum. Can PR reduce Obama's delegate lead & get her the nomination?
The following days will produce considerable political discussion about Tuesday’s election results. The reality is that while a lot occurred, little has changed – Obama still leads the race for the Democratic nomination for President. However, the spin machines will work overtime explaining how Hillary has come from near defeat to victory. CBS News on March 5th said: “Clinton, whose campaign just two weeks ago was deemed on the ropes…. led a rejuvenated campaign Wednesday after comeback victories in the Texas and Ohio Democratic primaries.”
Obama’s camp had a different spin on events. He told his supporters in San Antonio Texas: "No matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead [over Clinton] as we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination."
Both arguments are valid but only one will ultimately push a candidate to victory - PR momentum or raw delegate count?
- Victory - To paraphrase President Bill Clinton from his grand jury testimony: "It depends on what the meaning of the word [victory] is?” Hillary Clinton won more votes than Barack Obama yet Obama won more delegates than Hillary in Texas. Both statements are true and accurate; however delegates are the only factor that count for one individual to become the nominee of the party. CBS News went on to say: “Clinton…did not appear to pick up enough delegates to make a significant dent in the lead of her rival, Barack Obama.”
- Votes – According to CNN’s Politics.Com the votes cast in the four primaries on March 4th favored Clinton 53% to Obama’s 47%. Clinton gained about 2.833 million votes to Obama’s 2.506 million with the following breakdown.
- Ohio – Clinton's 1.208m to Obama’s 0.979 million
- Rhodes Island – Clinton’s 109k to Obama’s 79k
- Texas – Clinton’s 1.456m to Obama’s 1.356m
- Vermont – Clinton’s 60k to Obama’s 92k
- Delegates – In order to win the nomination for President of the Democratic Party a candidate must win 2024 delegates. CBS’s March 5th 1:46 AM ET update reported: “Going in to Tuesday's primaries, Obama had 1,386 delegates to Clinton's 1,276….” Using delegate data from CNN, CBS, AP, Secretaries of State for Ohio & Texas, the following delegate count is reached from Tuesday’s voting: Clinton won 190 to Obama’s 181 delegates. Like in Nevada, Clinton won the popular vote in Texas but lost the delegate count: 98 delegates for Obama to Clinton’s 95.
- Ohio - 76 Clinton / 66 Obama
- Rhodes Island – 13 Clinton / 8 Obama
- Texas – 65 Clinton / 61 Obama
- Texas Caucus* – 30 Clinton / 37 Obama
- Vermont – 6 Clinton / 9 Obama
The resultant Obama/Clinton delegate ratio, after the election, is 1567 to 1466. This is an insignificant (0.401%) gain of delegates for Clinton (48.335% now to 47.934% before the 4 state elections.)
- States – Clinton argues she won 3 states in Tuesday’s elections. Certainly she won the popular vote in three states; however, the delegate count reveals a different result. In this case, Obama can claim victory in 2 of the 4 states. “It depends on what the meaning of the word [victory] is?”
By far the largest benefit Clinton gets is the change of momentum the public will perceive occurred. On the Clinton campaign website she states: “With last night’s victories…one thing is clear: the momentum has swung back….” Unfortunately for her all that occurred on March 4th was the removal of 370 delegates from the race. Mathematics shows, gaining 2-3% of the delegates each cycle will not help her ultimately win the nomination.
* Ben Smith of Politico estimated on March 5th the results based upon the Texas Secretary of State's raw data: “results have Obama ahead -- sometimes by quite large margins -- in 21 of 31 Texas State Senate districts…”
